Death in Damascus - original formulation
Death in Damascus – Gibbard and Harper, 1978 Consider the story of the man who met death in Damascus. Death looked surprised, but then recovered his ghastly composure and said, “I am coming for you tomorrow.” The terrified man that night bought a camel and rode to Aleppo. The next day, death knocked on the door of the room where he was hiding and said “I have come for you.” “But I thought you would be looking for me in Damascus,” said the man.
“Not at all,” said death “that is why I was surprised to see you yesterday. I knew that today I was to find you in Aleppo.”
Now suppose the man knows the following. Death works from an appointment book which states time and place; a person dies if and only if the book correctly states in what city he will be at the stated time. The book is made up weeks in advance on the basis of highly reliable predictions. An appointment on the next day has been inscribed for him. Suppose, on this basis, the man would take his being in Damascus the next day as strong evidence that his appointment with death is in Damascus, and would take his being in Aleppo the next day as strong evidence that his appointment is in Aleppo.
Note that the draft version of this article, which is freely available online, does not contain any discussion on Death in Damascus. It is only the paywalled version, inside a proceedings book, that contains this formulation.
Actually, Gibbard and Harper reference a much older work for the story.
Origin of the story of Death in Damascus. A version of this story quoted from Somerset Maugham’s play Sheppey (New York, Doubleday 1934) appears on the facing page of John O’Hara’s novel Appointment in Samarra. (New York, Random House 1934). The story is undoubtedly much older.
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