Sleeping beauty problem
Some researchers are going to put you to sleep. During the two days that your sleep will last, they will briefly wake you up either once or twice, depending on the toss of a fair coin (Heads: once; Tails: twice). After each waking, they will put you to back to sleep with a drug that makes you forget that waking.
When you are first awakened, to what degree ought you believe that the outcome of the coin toss is Heads?
— Adam Elga, Self-locating Belief and the Sleeping Beauty Problem"
- Sailor’s Child problem is a reformulation that avoids the confusing bit of awakening.
Tags: probability
#feb22